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Posted on June 9th, 2009 in USA NewYorkStock Market

On the U.S. equity market, the trust company bosses hardly more of a forecast. The analysts, however, are very optimistic

By Simone Boehringer
Munich – Americans are optimists. And in recent decades, they are also usually pretty good mileage. Especially on the stock exchanges, where the expectations of all the courses determine proposes this positive attitude by love. Thus, the assessments of U.S. titles, traditionally a little higher than the European title. However, as currently glaring example was the discrepancy between expectations and the facts on the U.S. market is still rare. “98 out of 100 directors, the companies from the S & P 500 index are responsible have not least, very ambiguous or pessimistic about the business prospects expressed,” said David Pieper, U.S. equity strategist for Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg. The consensus estimate of analysts expects that the profits of these companies have exactly the end of the year will attract. For 2010 under the Equity professionals make a further increase of 30 percent.

As a result, the S & P-500, for professionals because of its many shares of the most index for U.S. stock exchanges, already is quite expensive: The price-earnings ratio (PER) is 16.3 – a sporting level for a recession whose end is not yet in sight. After all, suggests that P / E valuation, the S & P companies, at least 16 years income in the amount of analysts’ expectations can be achieved. Then that would be their current courses to justify. For comparison: When Dax is the P / E ratio for 2010 for just under ten, the Euro Stoxx 50 are only nine. The profits of the companies is expected to 2010 15 to 20 percent recover, analysts estimate.

Admittedly, some early indicators stoked hopes that with the economy at least not go down even further – the billions of state aids and cheap central bank money from the Fed, thankfully. But the fact is: The capacity utilization of U.S. industry is about 69 percent, the lowest since the post-war years.

Who is right? The rather pessimistic companies the stock handlebar or professionals? After the experience of the past ten years to judge the analysts are probably wrong. You have the earnings of companies in the process as incorrectly slowdown (chart). Colleagues, the individual titles, or even watch industries, are cyclical turning phases always a special challenge ‘, puts it from Wolfgang Pflüger, chief economist at the Berenberg Bank. The fact is that your business is the prognosis, and is without evidence from the companies concerned Topetagen harder to make than in normal times. That means the reverse: The reviews are based on even less evidence than in the past. “Many experts note, therefore, hardly erwartungsbasierte reviews, but focus on operational analysis of key figures from the past,” says Pflüger. He makes a simple calculation: if the economic researcher from a shrinking of the economy between five per cent (U.S.) and nine per cent (Japan) expect the gains may not already within a year to the state between 2007 and 2008 meetings. “It will take at least four to five years,” says Pflüger – like after the last bear market in 2002/2003.

But even on the cautious statements of the emerging company executives, investors can not leave one to one, says Joachim Goldberg, Director of Cognitrend. The company has focused on the behavioral analysis of stock market participants specialized. “Many entrepreneurs have focused on reducing fixed and now have to justify it, to have reduced capacity. This is a strategic decision that can not easily can be undone as soon as a spark of hope is there.”

One thing entrepreneurs have in any case, analysts and investors in common: They want it goes up. “Any less negative message is positive, therefore, recorded as it is,” says Goldberg. The result: “With the increased prices also improve the profit expectations and in turn prices. Many investors simply get off, because they are afraid that the next rally to miss.” A dangerous circular could be seriously jeopardized if the facts do not meet the expectations.